News State Tasmania News Pre-poll surge, election tipped to deliver hung parliament

Pre-poll surge, election tipped to deliver hung parliament

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A clear winner appears unlikely in Tasmania's election on Saturday. Photo: AAP
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About one in four Tasmanians have already cast their vote ahead of an election predicted to return another hung parliament.

Saturday’s poll, the second in Tasmania in 16 months, was called after minority Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a parliamentary no-confidence motion in June.

The latest opinion survey suggests the Liberals will pick up more seats than Labor but neither will reach the 18-seat mark required for majority.

More than 100,000 people have voted early – about a quarter of Tasmania’s 412,000 enrolled voters and 30,000 more than at the same point in the last campaign.

Labor leader Dean Winter held a barbecue with party faithful in Hobart on Friday morning, while Rockliff was in the state’s north-west drumming up support.

Both leaders have continued to blame each other for the snap poll, which has been dubbed the election no one really wanted.

Rockliff has campaigned under the slogan “finishing the job for Tasmania”.

The no-confidence motion, put forward by Labor and supported by the five-seat Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of ballooning budget debt and infrastructure stuff-ups.

“Dean Winter put Tasmania’s progress at risk when he forced this unnecessary election,” Rockliff said.

The election could have been avoided if Rockliff stepped down as Liberal leader, and the parliament gave its support to a different premier.

At the sole leaders’ campaign debate on Wednesday, Winter said Rockliff was “recklessly bankrupting” Tasmania and Labor would “clean up the mess”.

Tasmania’s debt is tipped to more than double to $13 billion by 2027-28.

The Liberals hold 14 seats in the 35-seat lower house, while Labor, which has been in opposition for 11 years, has 10.

Both parties have ruled out a deal with the Greens to govern, but have indicated they will work with independents.

A DemosAU poll conducted for radio station Pulse Tasmania had support for the Liberals at 35 per cent, down from their 37 per cent of the vote at the March 2024 poll.

Labor was on 25 per cent, a drop from its 2024 result of 29 per cent. Support for independent candidates was at 20 per cent.

There are a record 44 independents running in the 2025 state election. Among them are incumbents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who voted no-confidence in Rockliff and are expected to return.

Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave sitting Labor MP Julie Collins a fright at the federal election, has thrown his hat into the ring.

-AAP